REGIME: 3/5 panels structural, Ch.11 fresh, bidding warBOGZ1FL663067003Q: z=+3.30 extreme analogs: 1985, 1997, 2001 (worst S&P 12m -22%)
Today's read — 2026-05-10
best merger arb
GDOT — -14.5% spread, -27% annualized, closes in 180d. Buy at $12.62, receive $10.79 on close. Risk = deal break.
most extreme macro
BOGZ1FL663067003Q at +3.30σ (above historical mean). Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item).
freshest distress
OLENOX INDUSTRIES INC. — severe distress. Score 0.99. Filed 2026-05-04. Look at unsecured creditor recovery vs. bond price for trade.
next hard catalyst
PDUFA ZLAB on 2026-05-10. Zai Lab Ltd: PDUFA action date 2026-05-10 (8-K 2026-02-26).
smart-money consensus
JD.COM INC — 0 managers buying vs 3 selling, net $-137M. Consensus 13F selling (Q4 2025).
What you're looking at
merger arbRisk-free return if the announced deal closes. Spread % = (offer − price) / price.
structural zHow extreme each macro variable is vs its 30-yr history. |z|≥3 is a sub-1% historical event.
13F consensusWhat the 14 tracked managers (Buffett, Klarman, Ackman, …) bought/sold last quarter.
catalyst calendarUpcoming binary events with hard dates: FDA approvals, Fed meetings, index rebals, Ph3 readouts.
Ch.11 distressFresh bankruptcy filings ranked by stage and recency. Severe = within 7d of petition + DIP.
HY ETF prem/discCredit-stress early warning. Discount to NAV = credit selling pressure.
stub pairsParent market cap minus value of holdings. Negative stub = the market values the parent's other business below zero (Paulson/Pellegrini archetype).
scanner health 19s ago scanner_health.py
PASS analysis rows=10.0s
PASS edgar.search rows=50.0s
PASS edgar.full_text rows=100.6s
PASS structural_scan rows=430.1s
PASS merger_arb.discover rows=1152.4s
PASS merger_arb.scan_ex rows=30.0s
PASS stub_scanner rows=84.8s
PASS regulatory rows=4011.9s
PASS catalyst_calendar rows=170.0s
PASS bankruptcy rows=50.0s
PASS thirteen_f rows=50.0s
structural z-scores 12s ago FRED — Pellegrini engine
| # | series | class | signed z | level | vs ATH/ATL | rank | as of | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOGZ1FL663067003Q | leverage | +3.30 | 609.67K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2025-10-01 | Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item) |
| 2 | NCBDBIQ027S | leverage | +2.06 | 8.79M | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2025-10-01 | Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP ratio |
| 3 | TLAACBW027SBOG | leverage | +2.00 | 25.45K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-04-29 | Total assets, all commercial banks |
| 4 | NASDAQCOM | price_div | +1.73 | 26.25K | ● at ATH | top 4.9% | 2026-05-08 | NASDAQ Composite — concentration narrative gauge |
| 5 | HDTGPDUSQ163N | leverage | -1.58 | 68.55 | +0.9% above ATL | bottom 1.2% | 2025-04-01 | Household debt to GDP, US (BIS) |
| 6 | SP500 | price_div | +1.43 | 7.40K | ● at ATH | top 7% | 2026-05-08 | S&P 500 index level (nominal) |
| 7 | USSTHPI | price_div | +1.41 | 709.05 | ● at ATH | top 12% | 2025-10-01 | All-transactions House Price Index, US |
| 8 | MSACSR | leverage | +1.36 | 8.50 | -30.3% below ATH | top 9% | 2026-03-01 | Monthly supply of houses (months supply) |
| 9 | TEDRATE | liquidity | -1.06 | 0.0900 | +50.0% above ATL | bottom 1.1% | 2022-01-21 | TED spread — funding stress (discontinued 2022 but long history) |
| 10 | PSAVERT | credit_coll | +0.97 | 3.60 | -88.7% below ATH | bottom 11% | 2026-03-01 | Personal saving rate — low = credit-fueled spending |
| 11 | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | narrative | +0.97 | 2.79 | -42.0% below ATH | bottom 13% | 2026-05-07 | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS — low = complacency |
| 12 | T10YIE | narrative | +0.95 | 2.45 | -18.9% below ATH | top 10% | 2026-05-08 | 10y breakeven inflation |
merger arb spreads 37s ago EDGAR DEFM14A/S-4 + yfinance
| target | px | offer | spread % | ann % | asymm | risk-adj IRR | days to close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDOT | $12.62 | $10.79 | -14.50% | -27.2% | -0.97* | -19.0% | 180d |
regulatory events 18s ago EDGAR 8-K + FTC RSS
| sev | src | date | tkr | class | headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crit | FTC | 2026-04-23 | prohibition | FTC Charts Path to Restore Competition in Texas Anesthesia Markets in USAP Litigation | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-04-15 | prohibition | FTC Takes Action Against Noncompete Agreements, Securing Protections for Workers | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-05-08 | ILPT | second_request | Industrial Logistics Properties Trust 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-05-05 | VAL | second_request | Valaris Ltd 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-05-05 | RIG | second_request | Transocean Ltd. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-05-04 | ASRT | second_request | Assertio Holdings, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-05-01 | FCN | second_request | FTI CONSULTING, INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-30 | BNAI | statement_of_objections | Brand Engagement Network Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-29 | YSS | second_request | York Space Systems Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-29 | MSS | statement_of_objections | Maison Solutions Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-28 | CDNA | statement_of_objections | CareDx, Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-27 | XOMA | second_request | XOMA Royalty Corp 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-27 | LGND | second_request | LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-24 | SKYT | second_request | SkyWater Technology, Inc 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-24 | IONQ | second_request | IonQ, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-23 | GLIBA | second_request | GCI Liberty, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-20 | FBRT | second_request | Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-16 | ESE | statement_of_objections | ESCO TECHNOLOGIES INC 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-04-14 | VREOF | statement_of_objections | Vireo Growth Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| medi | FTC | 2026-05-07 | remedy_demand | FTC Finalizes Consent Order in Valvoline-Greenbriar Deal |
catalyst calendar 8s ago EDGAR 8-K PDUFA + FOMC + index rebal
| date | type | ticker | timing | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | pdufa | ZLAB | scheduled | Zai Lab Ltd: PDUFA action date 2026-05-10 (8-K 2026-02-26) |
| 2026-05-29 | pdufa | MNKD | expected | MANNKIND CORP: PDUFA action date 2026-05-29 (8-K 2026-05-06) |
| 2026-05-31 | pdufa | CING | expected | Cingulate Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-05-31 (8-K 2026-03-18) |
| 2026-06-05 | pdufa | ARVN | expected | ARVINAS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-06-05 (8-K 2026-02-24) |
| 2026-06-29 | pdufa | ARQT | expected | Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-06-29 (8-K 2026-02-25) |
| 2026-06-29 | pdufa | UNCY | expected | Unicycive Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-06-29 (8-K 2026-03-30) |
| 2026-06-30 | pdufa | IONS | expected | IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC: PDUFA action date 2026-06-30 (8-K 2026-04-29) |
| 2026-06-30 | pdufa | VRDN | expected | Viridian Therapeutics, Inc.\DE: PDUFA action date 2026-06-30 (8-K 2026-03-30) |
| 2026-07-07 | pdufa | VERA | expected | Vera Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-07 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-07-17 | pdufa | CELC | expected | Celcuity Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-17 (8-K 2026-03-25) |
| 2026-08-05 | pdufa | MRNA | expected | Moderna, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-05 (8-K 2026-05-01) |
| 2026-06-17 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-07-29 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-05-29 | index_rebal | MSCI | expected | MSCI semi-annual index review effective |
| 2026-06-19 | index_rebal | S&P 500 | expected | S&P quarterly rebalance effective |
| 2026-06-26 | index_rebal | Russell | expected | Russell annual reconstitution effective |
| 2026-06-01 | trial_phase3 | THPharm | inferred | A Randomized, Double-blind, Multi-center, Active-controlled, Phase 3 Clinical Tr |
| 2026-06-01 | trial_phase3 | Cytokine | inferred | Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Aficamten Compared to Place |
| 2026-06-01 | trial_phase3 | Oncoteli | inferred | A Study of OT-101 With mFOLFIRINOX in Patients With Advanced and Unresectable or |
| 2026-06-29 | trial_phase3 | Sanofi | inferred | A Study to Evaluate the Treatment Response and Safety of Two Dose Regimens of Su |
chapter 11 dockets 3s ago EDGAR 8-K full-text
| date | ticker | issuer | reason | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | OLOX | OLENOX INDUSTRIES INC. | voluntary petition | severe |
| 2026-04-28 | — | OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST (CIK 00014 | debtor-in-possession | severe |
| 2026-04-17 | QVCGA | QVC Group, Inc. | voluntary petition | severe |
| 2026-04-17 | QVCC | QVC INC | voluntary petition | severe |
| 2026-04-17 | CMLS | CUMULUS MEDIA INC | debtor-in-possession | severe |
stub pairs 1s ago parent/sub mcap diff
| parent | sub | parent mcap | stake value | stub value | z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWONA | FWONK | $21.54B | $23.67B | $-2.13B | -0.51 |
| LBRDK | CHTR | $5.18B | $5.68B | $-504M | +1.81 |
| LBRDA | CHTR | $5.18B | $5.68B | $-500M | +1.80 |
| IAC | MGM | $3.28B | $1.98B | $1.29B | +1.43 |
| SFTBY | ARM | $229.66B | $204.23B | $25.43B | -2.81 |
HY ETF prem/disc 2s ago yfinance — HYG JNK HYLB USHY
| ETF | price | NAV | prem/disc | z-score | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNK | $96.52 | $96.33 | +0.193% | +0.16 | normal | 2026-05-10 22:00 |
| HYG | $80.14 | $79.99 | +0.192% | +0.11 | normal | 2026-05-10 22:00 |
| HYLB | $36.59 | $36.57 | +0.049% | +0.02 | normal | 2026-05-10 22:00 |
| USHY | $37.07 | $37.01 | +0.165% | -0.02 | normal | 2026-05-10 22:00 |
corporate pivots 13s ago EDGAR 8-K + press wires
no pivot candidates in last 60 days (this is normal — genuine pivots are rare)
distressed equity reversals 1m ago EDGAR 8-K/13D/Form 4 + yfinance — ≥60% drawdown gated by event catalyst
| ticker | name | dd | DD score | tier | value | P/TBV | ROIC | FCF m | M | why | catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTM | Bitcoin Depot Inc. | 89% | 4.85 | net-net | 7.0 | 21.11 | 141% | 5% | -2.85 | EV/EBIT · ROIC · op-inc consistency | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| AGPU | Axe Compute Inc. | 68% | 4.00 | net-net | 5.1 | 0.66 | -422% | -853% | — | P/TBV · gross margin · Sloan | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| ONCO | Onconetix, Inc. | 99% | 4.56 | net-net | 5.1 | — | -99% | -417% | — | net-cash% · gross margin · Sloan | ceo_change · ceo_resign · ioi |
| BNGO | Bionano Genomics, Inc. | 74% | 5.43 | net-net | 4.9 | 0.36 | -70% | -351% | — | P/TBV · net-cash% · gross margin | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| FSP | FRANKLIN STREET PROPERTIES C | 71% | 3.66 | net-net | 4.9 | 0.09 | -2% | -12% | -2.73 | P/TBV · gross margin · Beneish | strategic_review |
| INDP | Indaptus Therapeutics, Inc. | 87% | 7.32 | net-net | 4.5 | 1.34 | — | — | — | net-cash% · op-inc consistency · Sloan | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| PHGE | BiomX Inc. | 95% | 4.45 | net-net | 4.4 | 0.52 | -293% | — | — | P/TBV · net-cash% · op-inc consistency | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| AIRE | reAlpha Tech Corp. | 94% | 2.64 | net-net | 4.3 | 15.99 | -133% | -693% | -0.95 | net-cash% · gross margin · ROIC trend | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| HOWL | Werewolf Therapeutics, Inc. | 69% | 3.61 | net-net | 4.1 | 1.33 | -552% | -270% | — | net-cash% · op-inc consistency · Sloan | strategic_review |
| TIVC | Tivic Health Systems, Inc. | 78% | 3.05 | net-net | 3.6 | 0.28 | -663% | -485% | — | P/TBV · net-cash% · op-inc consistency | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| GNPX | Genprex, Inc. | 98% | 7.41 | net-net | 3.4 | 1.14 | -3615% | — | — | net-cash% · op-inc consistency · Sloan | strategic_review |
| NEXM | NexMetals Mining Corp. | 66% | 2.88 | net-net | 2.8 | 1.93 | -101% | — | — | op-inc consistency · Sloan · net-cash% | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| XCUR | EXICURE, INC. | 72% | 7.68 | weak | 3.6 | — | -150% | -124% | — | insider · catalyst · net-cash% | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| SOWG | Sow Good Inc. | 94% | 5.42 | weak | 2.4 | — | -28% | -44% | — | Sloan · catalyst · ROIC trend | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| WW | WW INTERNATIONAL, INC. | 77% | 4.83 | weak | 2.5 | — | 146% | -4% | 3.21 | ROIC · gross margin · net debt/EBITDA | ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| CETI | Cyber Enviro-Tech, Inc. | 91% | 4.54 | weak | 2.4 | — | -67% | -1952% | — | Sloan · insider · ROIC trend | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| HYFM | HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, IN | 78% | 3.71 | weak | 3.1 | — | -11% | 1% | -14.23 | Beneish · Sloan · insider | strategic_review |
| DJTWW | Trump Media & Technology Gro | 75% | 3.52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation |
smart money — cross-manager 13F changes Q4 2025 · 18w · next ~May 15 EDGAR 13F-HR — Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025 (period: 2025-12-31 vs 2025-09-30)
| type | manager | period | issuer | new val | old val | delta $ | Δ shares % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q4 2025 | SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC | $2.18B | $148M | $2.03B | +1615% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q4 2025 | CHUBB LIMITED | $10.69B | $8.84B | $1.85B | +9% |
| NEW | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q4 2025 | META PLATFORMS INC | $1.76B | $0 | $1.76B | +100% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q4 2025 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | $9.75B | $10.94B | $-1.19B | -11% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q4 2025 | MICROSOFT CORP | $3.72B | $4.76B | $-1.04B | -16% |
| DECREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q4 2025 | ALPHABET INC | $212M | $1.18B | $-965M | -86% |
| INCREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q4 2025 | AMAZON COM INC | $2.22B | $1.28B | $939M | +65% |
| NEW | SCION | Q3 2025 | PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | $912M | $0 | $912M | +100% |
| DROPPED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q4 2025 | CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC | $0 | $844M | $-844M | -100% |
| DROPPED | THIRD_POINT | Q4 2025 | SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR | $0 | $583M | $-583M | -100% |
| DECREASED | APPALOOSA | Q4 2025 | ALIBABA GROUP HLDG LTD | $753M | $1.15B | $-400M | -20% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q4 2025 | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | $428M | $84M | $344M | +200% |
| NEW | OAKTREE | Q4 2025 | VANECK SEMICONDUCTOR ETF | $312M | $0 | $312M | +100% |
| DECREASED | OAKTREE | Q4 2025 | TORM PLC | $527M | $835M | $-307M | -35% |
| DROPPED | THIRD_POINT | Q4 2025 | FLUTTER ENTMT PLC | $0 | $284M | $-284M | -100% |
| NEW | BERKSHIRE | Q4 2025 | NEW YORK TIMES CO | $254M | $0 | $254M | +100% |
| DECREASED | OAKTREE | Q4 2025 | Indivior Pharmaceuticals Inc | $255M | $11M | $244M | -97% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q4 2025 | ALPHABET INC | $561M | $338M | $223M | +29% |
| DECREASED | THIRD_POINT | Q4 2025 | NORFOLK SOUTHN CORP | $282M | $496M | $-214M | -41% |
| INCREASED | THIRD_POINT | Q4 2025 | UNION PAC CORP | $419M | $207M | $212M | +107% |
13F consensus — cross-manager overlap Q4 2025 · 18w · next ~May 15 Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025 — grouped by issuer, buyers vs sellers, net Δ$
| issuer | buyers | sellers | net Δ$ | managers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD.COM INC | 0 | 3 | $-137M | APPALOOSA, SCION, OAKTREE |
| MICROSOFT CORP | 1 | 3 | $-1.18B | GATES, THIRD_POINT, ARIEL |
| LIBERTY MEDIA CORP DEL | 1 | 3 | $-184M | BERKSHIRE, BERKSHIRE, BERKSHIRE |